The latest ONS figures on Internet connectivity are no cause for complacency. They suggest that the proportion of homes in Great Britain (excluding Northern Ireland) connected to the Net is 57%. No UK figure is given but, since Net take-up in Northern Ireland is lower than for most of the UK, on the ONS data the UK penetration figure would probably be around 56%.

Ofcom offers us a slightly more encouraging picture in its recently-published Communications Market 2006 Report. The Ofcom consumer research showed that in Q1 2006 Internet penetration for the UK was 60% - up by 3% on the previous year. Bluntly what this means is that, for all the hype about us being a connected nation, 40% of homes - two in every five - are still not connected to the Net.

How rapidly will this change? If you look at Figure 3.58 in the Ofcom report - which provides the relevant data for the last six years - it is clear that the growth rate in Net connectivity is slowing down. The same figure shows the same thing for PC ownership which is a good indicator of likely future users of the Net.

Of those who are still unconnected to the Net, the Ofcom research indicates that 23% - equating to 9% of all households - intend to get online in the next 12 months. Ofcom itself knows that this will not happen. In the 2004 survey, 9% of households said that they would go online in the next 12 months, whereas actual penetration only grew by three percentage points.

So the chances are that - without some changes in public policy - by this time next year Net connectivity will only be 63%. If that rate of growth continued - which it won’t - we would not have 90% penetration (the level of fixed line or mobile penetration) for another 10 years. In fact, I would venture to suggest - and the evidence in other industrialised countries bears this out - that, without some form of public intervention, we will never have genuine universality of ubiquity of Net connectivity.

So why aren’t households signing up to the Net in greater numbers? There is some indication in the Ofcom report. The proportion of those citing cost as the main inhibiting factor is only 20%. On the other hand, 43% of adult consumers without Net access perceive no need to have a connection at home, 19% are not interested in the content, and 17% don’t understand how to use the Net.

There are two main categories of household where Net take-up is significantly lower than average: those with older citizens and those with poorer citizens. Unless they are shown - preferably in their own homes with personal support - that the Net is relevant to them and given practical backing in getting on-line and managing resultant difficulties, they will remain - in the quaint phraseology of Ofcom - voluntarily excluded.

I have offered some further thoughts on tackling the digital divide in this article and this one.