The OECD published yesterday its Communications Outlook 2005. You can buy it online for 50 pounds here. I have not read the report but from the various press releases these seem to be the key points:

* The industry is profitable again, but developments in Internet technology challenge the role and business models of traditional telecommunications operators, creating pressure for a new approach to regulation.
* In particular, VoIP threatens fixed-line revenues of traditional carriers, especially for international calls (according to the report there is an average 80% saving using Skype).
* VoIP is also a challenge for mobile telephones which have surpassed fixed line connections in some countries.

These are the main predictions:
* Service operators will increasingly offer integrated video, voice and data products in a single service package.
* The growing popularity of downloading video from the Internet will reduce the time people spend watching free-to-air TV, driving down audience share and advertising revenue for broadcasters and making it harder for public-service broadcasters to meet their social policy objectives.
* Increasing competition from new platforms, notably broadband Internet, with traditional broadcast or telecoms providers may require a re-examination of existing regulatory frameworks. In particular, regulators may need to review obligations regarding universal telecommunications service as more companies offer telephone services over the Internet without having a physical presence in a country.

Comment: Nothing new or exciting, really. Certainly VoIP is the �next big thing�, and it will disrupt the business models of traditional telcos more than they dare to admit (read James Enck�s excellent post last Spring: Masque of the Red Death). What I find a bit distressing is that the response to new challenges faced by telecoms operators or broadcasters is �a new approach to regulation�. This often means more regulation to protect the establishment (i.e., the big telcos and the free to air broadcasters) rather than opening up markets to encourage and facilitate entry by new operators. I also do not understand why is Internet TV such a threat to broadcasters. Are they not planning to (some already do) offer their content over the Internet just as the others? Why cannot PSBs meet their public service objectives in an online environment? Why should advertising revenues go down? There are a number of alternative business advertising models potentially successful. Broadcasters and telecommunications companies will just have to be more creative and innovative in the new media environment, or they�ll go out of business. As simple as that.